Post by johnknee on Jul 4, 2011 19:44:22 GMT 1
At time of writing, we've made seven signings - some of quality like Whelpdale and Lee, some who on paper are talented and should do a good job (Montrose, Frampton, Kedwell) and a couple of players of questionable quality for this level - Fish and Flitney. No question Scally is really pushing the boat out and spending big on some significant signings. On the pitch, we should see more quality than last season so that is great.
However, I get wiery when I see people on various people write on the various forums in the way that they think we are now champions elect and promotion should be quite straight forward. The signings are ones of optimism, but I can't help feeling things won't be as straight forward as people think. When I think about the attitudes of people last season after we signed Akinfenwa to partner McDonald and the talk of automatic promotion and then how things started off with a whimper, got briefly better in the middle before the ultimate let down at the end, I am always hesitant about getting too optimistic.
The thing is, we aren't that much stronger at this very moment in time than last season. And I'd quantify that statement thus:
Kedwell has a good scoring history to suggest he knows where the back of the net is, and I would expect him to regularly score. For the unknown fee we've paid, he should. However, do anyone else realistically think he is as good as Cody McDonald and will score 25 goals plus next season?? I'd love him to, but I can't see it. In the absence of a strike partner (at time of writing), then we are relying on Kedwell remaining in good form and fit the entire season. Even if you say he is an adequate replacement for McDonald, the lack of quality replacement for Akinfenwa means we will currently go into the season weaker up front than last season.
I know the counter-argument. Hess knows he needs another striker and look at what he has signed already - "In Hess we trust" et all. Hopefully Hess will find a decent strike partner and a 3rd spare striker, but until he does, we are simply weaker. This view is subject to change upon Hess signing someone.
Midfield is stronger certainly. Losing Barcham was a big blow but Whelpdale is more than enough class to directly replace him (ok, so different sides, slightly different playing types). And I mean the Barcham who was class for two years under Stimson rather than the pish-poor injury hit one of last season under Hess. Whatever midfield combo you pick from last season, next season's pair of Lee and Montrose are better. Or should be better at least. There is of course concern about the lack of a left sided player at the moment. I am thinking that of the existing players in the squad, Oli has played there and so can Jackman as a left footed player. As per my comment with the strikers, we need a decent left sided player. Until we do, this is of course a weakness. I would comment if we could afford a decent left sided player, but in light of the money spent recently, I doubt I could get away with asking how much money do we have spare after all the costs to date. But as per the start of this paragraph, we are stronger in midfield.
The defence is where I have most concern and where we could most come unstuck. Many people will argue that we are stronger at left back now that Nutter has left, but Martin did struggle to replace him completely when given a chance. Part of that was due to an injury proneness, which is a worry in itself. Certainly I am not convinced Martin will significantly improve our defence. Fuller was another much critisised player at right back. Will Fish be better? Reading the Dover websites, there is a question mark as to whether or not he can step up. Hess obviously has confidence, but will he be better than Fuller? If he is, I doubt he'll be significantly better. I am not convinced Fish is a step forward or will noticably improve the side. I'd expect Fish and Fuller to take turns next season in the way Nutter and Martin did. By all accounts, his form was largely indifferent last season in a league several below ours. Lastly we have Frampton. A good solid player, much loved by Millwall fans who think he is capable of still playing in the 1st division. No doubt he'll be much better than most fans' ratings of Gowling and Richards and on the face of it will improve the defence. But the but, and it is a big but like your mommas, is the fact most people comment a lack of pace. As good as Lawrence and Frampton are individually, the fact neither of them have much pace means we are going to be vulnable to pace. Even inferior teams, if they have a quick striker, can get behind our defence with a long ball unless we sit deep - and sitting deep can often isolate your strikers and force your own players to "go long". The problem with "going long" is the fact our quality midfield will be bypassed at times....
As for Flitney, the general comments from Dover fans is that he is a great shot stopper, but prone to errors. Write an accurate player description and feel free to interchange Flitney with Julian and vice versa. Of course, he might prove to be a class player after all, but I rather fear on the basis of comments from Dover fans is that he'll make a mistake sooner rather than later and then the boo boys will get on his back. Certainly he is no Jason Brown and could be a weak link.
I know I shall be accused of being anti-Hess or secretly wanting us to fail (a most insulting idea - just because I don't think we are as strong as other people think, it doesn't mean I want anyone to fail. I'd rather be proved wrong and this season for the Gills to win all their matches), but I like to think I am looking at the situation more realistically without getting caught up in the emotional side of things. For all the strengthening we've done to date (and may it continue), there are still weakness in the squad that needs to be fixed. And they are weaknesses that could cost us in matches. Our strongest team might be able to beat any other team in the league, but what happens when Flitney makes a mistake, or Kedwell is injured and we start with Oli and Payne up front, or conceding a late goal from a long ball over the top and their striker out sprints Lawrence and Frampton? Yes, the signings are ones of optimisism, but lets not think we are certain to go up as champions. Lets not think our team will simply walk over all other teams in the league. Other teams in the league that were stronger than us last season have also strengthened their teams and will not be walkovers...
Yes, Hess still has time to bring in one or two players more and maybe he'll successfully fix any weaknesses, but until he does, some perspective please.
However, I get wiery when I see people on various people write on the various forums in the way that they think we are now champions elect and promotion should be quite straight forward. The signings are ones of optimism, but I can't help feeling things won't be as straight forward as people think. When I think about the attitudes of people last season after we signed Akinfenwa to partner McDonald and the talk of automatic promotion and then how things started off with a whimper, got briefly better in the middle before the ultimate let down at the end, I am always hesitant about getting too optimistic.
The thing is, we aren't that much stronger at this very moment in time than last season. And I'd quantify that statement thus:
Kedwell has a good scoring history to suggest he knows where the back of the net is, and I would expect him to regularly score. For the unknown fee we've paid, he should. However, do anyone else realistically think he is as good as Cody McDonald and will score 25 goals plus next season?? I'd love him to, but I can't see it. In the absence of a strike partner (at time of writing), then we are relying on Kedwell remaining in good form and fit the entire season. Even if you say he is an adequate replacement for McDonald, the lack of quality replacement for Akinfenwa means we will currently go into the season weaker up front than last season.
I know the counter-argument. Hess knows he needs another striker and look at what he has signed already - "In Hess we trust" et all. Hopefully Hess will find a decent strike partner and a 3rd spare striker, but until he does, we are simply weaker. This view is subject to change upon Hess signing someone.
Midfield is stronger certainly. Losing Barcham was a big blow but Whelpdale is more than enough class to directly replace him (ok, so different sides, slightly different playing types). And I mean the Barcham who was class for two years under Stimson rather than the pish-poor injury hit one of last season under Hess. Whatever midfield combo you pick from last season, next season's pair of Lee and Montrose are better. Or should be better at least. There is of course concern about the lack of a left sided player at the moment. I am thinking that of the existing players in the squad, Oli has played there and so can Jackman as a left footed player. As per my comment with the strikers, we need a decent left sided player. Until we do, this is of course a weakness. I would comment if we could afford a decent left sided player, but in light of the money spent recently, I doubt I could get away with asking how much money do we have spare after all the costs to date. But as per the start of this paragraph, we are stronger in midfield.
The defence is where I have most concern and where we could most come unstuck. Many people will argue that we are stronger at left back now that Nutter has left, but Martin did struggle to replace him completely when given a chance. Part of that was due to an injury proneness, which is a worry in itself. Certainly I am not convinced Martin will significantly improve our defence. Fuller was another much critisised player at right back. Will Fish be better? Reading the Dover websites, there is a question mark as to whether or not he can step up. Hess obviously has confidence, but will he be better than Fuller? If he is, I doubt he'll be significantly better. I am not convinced Fish is a step forward or will noticably improve the side. I'd expect Fish and Fuller to take turns next season in the way Nutter and Martin did. By all accounts, his form was largely indifferent last season in a league several below ours. Lastly we have Frampton. A good solid player, much loved by Millwall fans who think he is capable of still playing in the 1st division. No doubt he'll be much better than most fans' ratings of Gowling and Richards and on the face of it will improve the defence. But the but, and it is a big but like your mommas, is the fact most people comment a lack of pace. As good as Lawrence and Frampton are individually, the fact neither of them have much pace means we are going to be vulnable to pace. Even inferior teams, if they have a quick striker, can get behind our defence with a long ball unless we sit deep - and sitting deep can often isolate your strikers and force your own players to "go long". The problem with "going long" is the fact our quality midfield will be bypassed at times....
As for Flitney, the general comments from Dover fans is that he is a great shot stopper, but prone to errors. Write an accurate player description and feel free to interchange Flitney with Julian and vice versa. Of course, he might prove to be a class player after all, but I rather fear on the basis of comments from Dover fans is that he'll make a mistake sooner rather than later and then the boo boys will get on his back. Certainly he is no Jason Brown and could be a weak link.
I know I shall be accused of being anti-Hess or secretly wanting us to fail (a most insulting idea - just because I don't think we are as strong as other people think, it doesn't mean I want anyone to fail. I'd rather be proved wrong and this season for the Gills to win all their matches), but I like to think I am looking at the situation more realistically without getting caught up in the emotional side of things. For all the strengthening we've done to date (and may it continue), there are still weakness in the squad that needs to be fixed. And they are weaknesses that could cost us in matches. Our strongest team might be able to beat any other team in the league, but what happens when Flitney makes a mistake, or Kedwell is injured and we start with Oli and Payne up front, or conceding a late goal from a long ball over the top and their striker out sprints Lawrence and Frampton? Yes, the signings are ones of optimisism, but lets not think we are certain to go up as champions. Lets not think our team will simply walk over all other teams in the league. Other teams in the league that were stronger than us last season have also strengthened their teams and will not be walkovers...
Yes, Hess still has time to bring in one or two players more and maybe he'll successfully fix any weaknesses, but until he does, some perspective please.
As for Martin, although his fitness is a concern, he is a better defender that Nutter when fit, though we'll lose Nutter's excellent deadball delivery and crossing ability. He got better the more he played last season.
